I have been spending some time reading and thinking about game forecasting and crowdsourcing (see 8/17 post). This was all triggered by an article in the Sunday New York Times magazine last weekend. The article highlighted the work of Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and his method of using a proprietorial software program to uncover potential outcomes to global questions. http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/16/magazine/16Bruce-t.html

I have been pondering the impact of this technology on the nonprofit and social sector. Clearly these fields have their own unique global questions. Donors are constantly trying to help move forward specific initiatives. Partnerships are formed. Movements dissolve. Do a few individuals control the fate of a cause or is it the will of the masses?

The 1983 drama-adventure film WarGames exhibited the futuristic WOPR supercomputer. The mainframe churned away on possible outcomes to nuclear war all the while undeterred by human attempts to over-ride its program. Although a Hollywood version of artificial intelligence, the movie highlighted the possibilities of game forecasting. The questions I ponder is the role this technology and method on the nonprofit sector. Will potential capital campaigns no longer use feasibility studies but rather turn to a software program to generate a numerical probability of success? Will future partnerships and mergers have to demonstrate viability via game forecasting before the respective boards will proceed? Will strategic plans retreats be run online in much the same way the television studio audience votes for their favorite clip on America’s Favorite Home Videos? Are we headed for a new level of sophistication or potentially a different master?