How might we employ Bayes’ Therom, tested and written about by Kahneman and Tversky, to provide more reliable goals and outcomes when planning? Simply deploying the visual representation of the theory might quickly confirm or recant our hypothesis and assumptions.

Actual social sector scenarios I encountered where this deliberation framework might resonate:

A performing arts group evaluates how much of the community seeks opera and, of that subset, how many are drawn to celebrated performances versus those seeking unknown operas.

A land conservation group trying to draw attention to its efforts to preserve and manage riparian ecosystems in a region. How many community members are influenced by the river, and of that group, how many are willing to risk their social capital to act on behalf of river preservation?

An education institution launching a new foreign language program trending at other peer schools. How many students are interested in any foreign language and are ready to commit (or start) to a new foreign language program? How many students commit three years of study to their foreign language studies?