Weather forecasters predict the probability of precipitation by using the certainty + coverage formula. For example, a 40% chance of rain might include 80% coverage but only a 20% certainty or 80% certainty but 20% coverage.

The formula might serve value when considering strategic initiatives. What percentage of your enterprise’s constituents does a program serve, and what is the certainty that it will take place? During a consulting engagement with a chamber of commerce, they were seeking to increase air service to the community. It was one of their highest priorities. Their projected probability score consistently ranked high since they overestimated the certainty of attracting a new airline to the region and the number of people it would serve. The miscalculation persisted for another decade before market conditions shifted and new airlines began considering adding flights.