Author: whatifconcepts

Empowering those that inspire so they can excel at the work that matters.

CrowdSourcing and Game Forecasting

I have been spending some time reading and thinking about game forecasting and crowdsourcing (see 8/17 post). This was all triggered by an article in the Sunday New York Times magazine last weekend. The article highlighted the work of Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and his method of using a proprietorial software program to uncover potential outcomes to global questions. http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/16/magazine/16Bruce-t.html

I have been pondering the impact of this technology on the nonprofit and social sector. Clearly these fields have their own unique global questions. Donors are constantly trying to help move forward specific initiatives. Partnerships are formed. Movements dissolve. Do a few individuals control the fate of a cause or is it the will of the masses?

The 1983 drama-adventure film WarGames exhibited the futuristic WOPR supercomputer. The mainframe churned away on possible outcomes to nuclear war all the while undeterred by human attempts to over-ride its program. Although a Hollywood version of artificial intelligence, the movie highlighted the possibilities of game forecasting. The questions I ponder is the role this technology and method on the nonprofit sector. Will potential capital campaigns no longer use feasibility studies but rather turn to a software program to generate a numerical probability of success? Will future partnerships and mergers have to demonstrate viability via game forecasting before the respective boards will proceed? Will strategic plans retreats be run online in much the same way the television studio audience votes for their favorite clip on America’s Favorite Home Videos? Are we headed for a new level of sophistication or potentially a different master?

Mistakes Were Made

My kids occasionally watch a Nick cartoon TV program, “The Penguins Madagascar.” In one episode the penguins believe they have traveled to the moon only to find out at the end of the show that they only flew in a rocket to the top of an adjacent building and then back to their enclosure at the Central Park Zoo. When the penguins question one another about the failed mission, one replies, “I forgot to carry the two.”

Yesterday, I incorrectly tweeted that Four Seasons Hotels use Twitter effectively and Hyatt Hotels does not. I ‘follow’ both Four Seasons and Hyatt on Twitter. I receive numerous daily updates from the Four Seasons but none from what appears to be the official Hyatt profile. Best I have learned, Hyatt leaves it up to each property to set-up and maintain their own Twitter profile. Since I am staying at one of their properties this week (one of my favorite) I immediately began following the particular property on Twitter. There is a lot of useful information and specials posted.

Four Seasons has the same arrangement where each property sets-up a Twitter profile. In addition they uses their corporate profile of @Four_Seasons to share information about each property and tweet about the company in general.

It is a complicated decision. Does the ‘brand’ maintain the relationship with the customer or is it the individual properties? Or does some hybrid method work better? I patronize both companies but more often Hyatt for a variety of reasons. There are particular properties that I am especially fond of and will follow on Twitter. As a frequent guest I also wonder how I should keep undated with specials and events at properties that I may not follow. On the other hand, there are days when I feel like the I heard enough from the Four Seasons because none of the tweets peak my interest.

So I apologize to Hyatt for my incorrect tweet. I wonder who you follow on Twitter? Why? What makes them worth following? What is effective tweeting?

If You Felt Like You Were Going In Circles

You knew it was true, the feeling that you were going in circles. Turns out we are all prone to re-trace our steps and circle back on ourselves when we lack reference points. I am reminded of hearing the same suggestion brought annually by the newest board members of an arts organization. They all saw there was a flaw in the membership program. The new board member (without prompting from others or conspiracy) made the identical suggestion each year. You could almost hear a chuckle in the room from the veteran board members. It took a few years for the ‘new’ members to become the majority on the board and the suggestion was adopted. Turned out to be a smashing success. Just took a few trips around the calendar before enough people became comfortable with not repeating the old course.

Great article about a human navigation in the wilderness: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/21/science/21circles.html

Facebook Just Bought the Rights to Your Social Media Experience?

Very interesting article on the future of social media and role Facebook will play. In the context of yesterday’s video (for those who read/watched yesterday’s blog). This seems to re-enforce the idea that your organizations will need to find customers and donors in the future via social media, they will not be trying to find you. Are you ready?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/08/15/AR2009081500040.html

How Many Tries?


For over a year my wireless provider has sent me a text saying they cannot reach me at my billing address. I changed my billing address over a year ago but the wireless company has a glitch in their computer system and it reverts my records to my old address. Every couple months I call customer service and update the billing address again. The representative assures me that the changes are confirmed by the computer. By the end of the month I am receiving the same text message.

My contract ends soon and I am ready to switch providers just to have a company who can keep my information correctly. It is a basic expectation and should be a simple process. If the fundamentals do not work then why should I consider investing more of my time and energy? Do you execute on the basics?

Ecological Load Factor


Continuing to read a fine line by Hartmut Esslinger. He proposes developing a future market using a pricing index that includes an ‘ecological load factor’. Meaning that the environmental impact of an item a consumer purchases would have an ELF index and the price would increase if the process the manufacture used to produce the item is environmentally unfriendly. If the product utilizes green production processes, sustainable materials, uses less energy and is recycled or returned to the manufacture at the end of its lifespan, the ELF index would be low. If the product did not meet the standards set above then the price for the product would have a higher EFL index. The index would evaluate the ecological impact of manufacturing process of product, materials used and the cost to dispose of the product at the end of its life cycle. Currently, we give tax credits for green initiatives but consumers do not have to pay more at the point of purchase. How would the marketplace change if pricing were altered to reflect the ecological load factor of each item?

How do we prepare for changes to the marketplace? What might we anticipate that supports the mission of our organizations? Where is your enterprise on the ‘green movement’ scale?

Mis-Communication


Went running earlier this week in western Colorado. I followed the road into a beautiful canyon that turns into a dirt road. To drop off the plateau and into a completely different world below the canyon rim is a favorite moment of mine. As I adventured along the county road locals were driving to town mostly in pick-up trucks. They stared out their windshields at me or gave a little nod but continued forward at a high rate of speed. What they did not consider was that their trucks were spraying gravel in a rooster tail which descended on me as I ran in the other direction. I started covering my face with my hands when they approached. What clearly appeared as the start of a friendly wave on my part was actually a self-defense mechanism. It took me a moment to realize that if I had been riding a horse down the road the drivers would have been more courteous but they were not thinking about the impact of their on a runner.

Are you on the same page with your clients and customers? Do you both realize the consequences of your actions?